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Thursday, 12 July 2007 00:07

California Population by 2050

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slide38 A report released this week from the California State Department of Finance has some interesting details regarding the make up of the population of California, including details on mortality, fertility and migration rates of the ethnic groups that make up the GoldenState. The report projects California's population will reach almost 60 million people by 2050, adding over 25 million since the 2000 decennial census, according to long-range population projections released today by the California Department of Finance. From less than 34 million Californians counted in that census, the new data series shows that the state will pass the 40 million mark in 2012, and exceed 50 million by 2032.

Amador County follows the state population increases with the county expected to grow by about 10 percent between the year 2000 and 2010- reaching over 40,000 residents by 2010. The projections then increase the percentage of growth per decades and project 47,500 residents by 2020. By 2050 the Amador County population is expected to near 70,000 people. The new statewide projections reveal that Hispanics are now expected to constitute the majority of Californians by 2042. By the middle of the century, the projections show that Hispanics will be 52 percent of the state's population, with Whites comprising 26 percent. Asians are expected to be 13 percent; African Americans, 5 percent; and Multirace persons, 2 percent. Both American Indian and Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups will each make up less than 1 percent of the state by 2050.

slide42 Los Angeles will continue to be California's largest county, topping 13 million by mid-century. Four counties – Kern, San Joaquin, Fresno and Orange – will each grow between 1 and 1.5 million people by 2050. Sutter County is expected to more than triple in size and to experience the greatest percentage increase over the 50-year period – 255 percent. Other counties with notable percentage increases will be Yuba, Madera, Kern, and San Joaquin, demonstrating the shift in growth away from the coast that has been underway for several years. Only one county – Sierra County – is expected to have fewer people, around 150 less, in 2050 than in 2000. By 2050, the new projections indicate that Trinity County will have the highest percentage of Whites of any county, while Imperial County will continue to have the highest percentage of Hispanics.

slide43 Alameda County will have the highest percentage of Asians; Santa Clara County will have the highest proportion of Pacific Islanders; and San Bernardino will have the largest proportion of Blacks. Finally, Alpine County will contain the largest percentage of American Indians, while Inyo County will continue to have the largest share of Californians identifying themselves as Multirace persons. At mid-century Whites will be the majority population in just 23 counties. Hispanics are projected to be the majority race/ethnic group in 22 counties. The study concludes that fertility rates are highest amongst the Hispanic and Hawaiian/Pacific islander population with rates of 2.33 and 2.10 children respectively. Non Hispanic Whites are next at 1.83 children followed by Non-Hispanic blacks and Asians at 1.80 percent. The lowest rates are the Non-Hispanic American Indian population at 1.27 children.

Also of interest are the mortality rates which show if you are of a Non-Hispanic multiracial background you will live the longest with a life expectancy of 90.9 years. Females do better than males, a long held fact, with Non-Hispanic Asian females averaging 86.9 years, followed by Hispanic females at 84.2 years, then comes non Hispanic Asian Males at 82.9 years and then back to females, with American Indian Females living an average of 81.6 years. Non Hispanic white females are next living an average of 81.1 years. Black males have the shortest expected life span at just 68.8 years. White males live an average of 76.8 years.

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